Data Story: Population Growth (2012-2022)

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North Dakota’s Population: A Decade of Growth

North Dakota added more than 100,000 residents in the last decade. Learn more about the implications and dynamics of this growth through the data story below.
This data story is part of a collaboration between the Department of Commerce and the Data Division within the Department of Information Technology with the aim of improving government transparency and access to data-driven insights.

Largest Decade of Population Growth in the Last Century

The 2010s have marked the largest rate of population growth in the past century for North Dakota1, with a 14.9% growth rate experienced between 2012-20222. With the population remaining between 600,000 - 680,000 since 1960, this period marked the first time the resident population exceeded 700,0003.
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ND Population growth
Source: ACS 5 Year Survey
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North Dakota = One of the Fastest Growing States in the Country

The 14.9% growth rate North Dakota experienced in the decade between 2012 and 2022 place it as the 4th fastest growing state in the country2. This rate is more than double the national increase of 7.1%.
How does this compare?
Regional. In comparison to neighboring states, North Dakota’s growth rate was 4.7 percentage points greater than the next fastest growth rate (Montana).
Smaller Populations. Among the 10 states with the smallest populations in 2012, North Dakota had the greatest rate of growth and was one of only two to see an increase of more than 100,000 residents by 2022.
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ND Population growth
Source: ACS 5 Year Survey
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While the Nation Gets Older, North Dakota Trends Younger

North Dakota’s rapid population growth between 2012 and 2022 was accompanied by a shift towards a younger population. While the U.S. median age rose from 37.2 to 38.5 over this period, North Dakota’s median age decreased by 1.5 years. This shift can be attributed to significant growth in the population under 40 years old. While the population age 40 to 64 remained roughly stable, the population under 40 years old increased by 76,575, nearly 3 times the growth in the 65 and older demographic2.
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Source: ACS 5 Year Survey
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What is Contributing to the State’s Population Increase?

Components of Population Growth - High Birth Rates Across the Decade

From 2012 to 2022, North Dakota's births consistently outpaced deaths, driving natural population growth. Births peaked between 2014 and 2016, exceeding 11,000 annually, before declining to 9,557 in 20224. Meanwhile, deaths gradually increased, with a sharp rise in 2020, likely due to COVID-19. The population continued to grow naturally, but slower as births declined and deaths rose.
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ND Population growth
YearBirthsDeathsNatural Change
201210,0725,8574,215
201310,5916,0594,532
201411,3526,0365,316
201511,2656,0515,214
201611,3646,1155,249
201710,7386,3114,427
201810,6306,3434,287
201910,4476,6113,836
202010,0507,9342,116
202110,1117,1542,957
20229,5577,0392,518
Source: North Dakota Vital Records - Fast Facts
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Components of Population Growth - Strong Migration Into the State

North Dakota experienced positive net migration from 2012 to 2022. According to state-to-state migration flows based on American Community Survey 1-Year estimates, neighboring Minnesota was the largest contributor of net migration into the state, followed by Texas, California, New York, and New Mexico. The largest net migration out of the state was to Arizona, followed by Colorado, North Carolina, Utah, and Alabama5.
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Source: ACS 1 Year State-to-State Migration Flows
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How Has the Population Across the State Changed?

Regionally Concentrated Growth

Looking at county populations, growth has been uneven, with the greatest increases concentrated in major population centers (e.g., Bismarck, Fargo, Grand Forks) and oil and gas producing counties. In contrast, many rural counties without an oil and gas industry footprint (within or an adjacent county) saw population declines2.
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ND Population growth
Source: ACS 5 Year Survey
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In Conclusion: A Strong Decade of Growth

The 2010s marked significant growth for North Dakota, with the rate of increase being the highest the State has experienced in the last century. This population growth includes many positive trends and indicators, including a stable age distribution, high birth rates, and positive migration from other states. However, some of these trends were distributed unevenly across the State, with population growth concentrated in metropolitan and oil and gas producing counties.
Recognizing that further change and growth is anticipated over the coming years, the Census data presents opportunities to further support the communities and residents across the State. You are welcome to review other resources on our State Data Hub. for additional insights into the population segments explored in this story.

References

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References
  1. U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Population Change Data (1910-2020), 
    https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html
  2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year, 
    https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data.html
  3. U.S. Census Bureau, Population and Housing Unit Estimates Tables, 
    https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/tables.html
  4. North Dakota Department of Health and Human Services, Vital Records Fast Facts, 
    https://www.hhs.nd.gov/vital
  5. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year State-to-State Migration Flows, 
    https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html